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Now in its ninth year, the Standard Scenarios, created using NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, incorporates the most current data on technology costs and performance. This year's report comprises 53 potential futures, accessible via the NREL Scenario Viewer.
These Standard Scenarios offer a yearly updated overview of potential developments in the U.S. electricity grid, addressing aspects such as infrastructure growth, greenhouse gas emissions, and associated costs.
Highlights from the 2023 Standard Scenarios:
The report's Mid-case scenario serves as a central reference, reflecting possible outcomes if current trends persist. It factors in current technology and fuel costs, electricity demand, and existing electric sector policies, including the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.
By 2050, the Mid-case projects substantial growth in wind (750 GW) and solar power (1,100 GW), marking significant increases from present levels. Additionally, natural gas capacity is expected to expand, particularly for ensuring reliable power supply.
Emerging technologies, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen combustion turbines, and small nuclear reactors, are projected to contribute marginally under current policies but could play a larger role in scenarios emphasizing decarbonization.
U.S. electricity sector emissions are forecasted to decrease significantly through the mid-2030s. The Mid-case scenario predicts an 81% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2035 compared to 2005 levels, with a range of 71%–86% across all scenarios under existing policies.
Despite these reductions, the clean energy tax credits established by the Inflation Reduction Act are projected to remain in effect through 2050 in most scenarios.
Achieving 95% net decarbonization by 2050 in the Mid-case scenario would result in a modest 0.5% increase in present-value bulk electric sector costs, while a 100% net decarbonization by 2035 could lead to a 14% cost increase.
For more details, join the free NREL webinar at 11 a.m. MT on Jan. 24, 2024. Registration is required. The technical report and scenarios are available on the NREL Scenario Viewer.
The 2023 Standard Scenarios, supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, form part of NREL's broader initiative to provide comprehensive, realistic energy analyses. These scenarios are modeled using the latest data from NREL's Annual Technology Baseline.
Further information about NREL's energy analysis research is available at NREL 2023 Standard Scenarios.